The United States Geological Survey reports that aftershocks are a possibility following a 4.1-magnitude earthquake that happened on the morning of May 10.
The seismic event happened along the North Carolina/ Tennessee border, across southwestern North Carolina, and the USGS reports the quake was 24.9 km deep, which is 15.4 miles deep.
The USGS also reported that aftershocks are a possibility over the next few days.
"According to our forecast, there is a less than 1% chance of one or more aftershocks that are larger than magnitude 5, which can be damaging, within the next week. There will likely be smaller aftershocks within the next week, with up to 4 magnitude 3 or higher aftershocks," the USGS said.
Magnitude 3 and higher aftershocks are large enough to be felt nearby. The number of aftershocks will decrease over time, but a large aftershock can temporarily increase the number of aftershocks, the USGS said on its website.
At the time of this forecast on the afternoon of May 10, the USGS reports that there have been no magnitude 3 or higher aftershocks, which are strong enough to be felt nearby, and no magnitude 5 or higher aftershocks, which are large enough to do damage.
USGS estimates the chance of more aftershocks within the next week until May 17as follows:
- A 19% chance of magnitude 3 and above aftershocks within the next week, and it is most likely that up to four of these will occur.
- A 4% chance of magnitude 4 and above aftershocks within the next week, and it is most likely that one of these will occur.
- A 3% chance that this earthquake becomes a foreshock to a larger earthquake (magnitude 4.1 or greater) in the next week. Such an earthquake is possible but with a low probability.
- A 1 in 200 chance (0.4%) of magnitude 5 and above aftershocks within the next week, such an earthquake is possible but with a low probability.
- A 1 in 2,000 chance (0.04%) of magnitude 6 and above aftershocks within the next week, such an earthquake is possible but with a very low probability.
- A 1 in 20,000 chance (0.004%) of magnitude 7 and above aftershocks within the next week, such an earthquake is possible but with a very low probability.
STORY & PHOTO COURTESY OF ABC 13 WLOSUSGS: Aftershocks possible following 4.1-magnitude earthquake felt in WNC
